Tuesday, January 17, 2006

This is not about politics.

This post is not about politics.

I like to think that I provide a collegial, welcoming environment here, one where my vast readership (we'll reach double digits any day now!) can swing from the monkey bars of democracy, zoom down the slides of free speech, without any schoolyard bullies giving them wedgies of partisanship. I also like playgrounds, evidently.

Thus, this post is not about politics. It is about common sense.

I tend to hang with NDP voters. Perhaps it's their liberal social values, perhaps it's their sexy pheromones, who knows. It's just the way it is. I also know that, for many of us, strategic voting is like the fruit in the garden of Eden - tempting, juicy, and usually Liberal red. That being said, I was particularly concerned to see Paul Martin on the National today, in Saskatoon of all places, appealing for NDP voters there to switch allegiances to the Grits.

In two out of four Saskatoon ridings, a vote for the Liberals in no way ensures a Conservative will be elected.

The most obvious example is Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. In 2004, the Conservative candidate Carol Skelton finished with 11,875 votes. The NDP Candidate Dennis Gruending finished second with 9,597. Myron Luczka, the Liberal, finished a distant third with 4,171 votes. Clearly, an NDP supporter who "strategically" votes Liberal in this riding on January 23 would actually be improving the Conservative candidate's chances of winning.

The less obvious example is Saskatoon-Humboldt, which comprises most of Saskatoon's downtown core. 2004 was a tight four way race. Conservative Brad Trost* won with 9,444 votes. NDP Nettie Wiebe (now running, coincidentally, in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar) finished second with 9,027 votes. Liberal Patrick Wolfe finished third with 9,009 votes. Independent candidate Jim Pankiw finished fourth with 7,076 votes.

Yes, the Liberal candidate nearly won Saskatoon-Humboldt in 2004. However, this riding is another in which an NDP vote can also have an impact on who is sent to Ottawa. With the numbers so tight, it cannot be conclusively proven that switching one's vote to the Liberals would be a good strategy for ensuring a Conservative does not get elected. In fact, if there were 418 NDP supporters who strategically voted Liberal in this riding in 2004, and they had instead chosen not to do so, this would have been an NDP seat.

A final point, one I'm sure most people know but because I like the sound of my fingers dancing along my keyboard I'll reiterate: if (a big "if," in meaning if not in font size) the goal of your vote is to keep the Conservatives from forming government, it shouldn't matter if the most competitive party in the riding is Liberal, NDP, Green, or the I'm-Going-To-Take-A-Big-Stinking-Poo-on-the-House-of-Commons-Floor party. In fact, that last one would be great for photojournalists everywhere.

Ultimately, whether you vote strategically to keep a certain party out of office is none of my beeswax. Nor is whether you prefer Stephen Harper's little boy haircut, the traffic pylon chic that sums up Jack Layton's choice in neckties, or the hypnotic undulation of Paul Martin's droopy jowls.

I just want to make sure Saskatonians of the NDP persuasion know the math from '04 (all data, by the way, comes courtesy of Elections Canada's website). Word.

*If Brad Trost is reading this blog, I have a message to pass along: Yo! Brad! My brother's moved into your old apartment, and he's still getting your mail. Once this whole election shizzit is over, get on this puppy. Thanks.

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